An electoral survey confirms the assault of the extreme left to the Parliament

USPA NEWS - The conservative Popular Party will win the elections on June 26 in Spain, although it lost two deputies, while the coalition between communists and left-wing populist United we Can confirms his rise to the second position.

It is what reveals the latest macro survey of governmental Centre for Sociological Research (CIS its acronym in Spanish), made with 17,000 personal interviews in the homes of more than a thousand Spanish municipalities during the month of May. The survey was conducted when the communist coalition United Left and the coalition of far left Podemos (We Can) had already agreed to attend the elections together, and had interest in knowing if confirmed what other surveys have noted in the press in recent weeks. These surveys were talking about the progress of United we Can and kick the Socialist Party, which for the first time in its history remain in third place.

And that is precisely what the macro survey of CIS confirms. The conservative Popular Party would win the election with 29.2% of the vote and would get between 118 and 121 deputies, at best these assumptions two deputies less than in the elections of December 20, 2015. In second place would be the coalition between communists and populist United we Can, who achieved between 88 and 92 deputies, in the best of these assumptions 21 deputies more than those obtained by the two forces separately in the December 2015 elections.

As a third force in the Spanish Parliament would be the Socialist Party would get 21.2% of the vote and between 78 and 80 deputies. The Socialist Party would lose up to 10 deputies compared to the previous elections. Finally, the center party Citizens would again as fourth force and although would rise in votes, with 14.16% of the vote, would get between 38 and 39 deputies, one less than in December 2015.

With these results, no party could govern alone nor any coalition on the first ballot, when 176 votes were needed for the Prime Minister is elected by an absolute majority. In second ballot, when a simple majority is sufficient, the conservative Popular Party would need to reach an agreement with Citizens and obtain the favorable vote of the Catalan nationalists, Basque and Canary Island. Otherwise, the results of macro survey of CIS, could not govern because a pact between United we Can and the Socialist Party can give the Government to the left.

But the results of the macro survey shed other consequences. If confirmed, the political future of Secretary General of the Socialist Party, Pedro Sanchez, will be in jeopardy. The socialist candidate repeat the worst results in the history of Spanish socialism and left without arguments to stay ahead of the party, at a time when the Spanish Socialist Party needs to be redefined to regain the place it has occupied since the democratic restoration in 1978.