The Groundhog Day Catalan

USPA NEWS - Spain woke up Monday with the feeling that nothing has changed in the policy regarding the Catalan independence. A sort of 'Groundhog Day', far from reassuring, consolidates uncertainty about the country's future.

The polls showed a victory for the pro-independence parties in the Catalan Parliament, but a defeat of the separatist thesis number of votes for that option. With numbers in hand, the Catalan nationalism and, within it, the sovereignism have lost social support since 2012. In the elections of that year, composed of Convergence of Catalonia and Catalan nationalist Democratic Union coalition won 50 seats, and the formation of Republican Left ERC scored 21. In the elections this September 27th, Democratic Union of Catalonia separated from her partner of government and, by going alone, did not obtain parliamentary representation, and Convergence and ERC, going together to the polls, they won 62 seats, nine fewer than achieved three years ago.

If the votes cast are counted, the coalition Junts pel Si has worsened 2012 results significantly. That year, added the votes of Convergence and ERC reached 44.40% of votes. In Sunday's elections, both formations achieved a 39.54% of the vote. They won the election, but not with the necessary support to legitimize without any doubt its independence project.

But politics is the art of manipulation. This explains why, after each election day, all parties contesting the polls winners are considered a greater or lesser extent. Each interprets the results as their needs. And Junts pel Si role does understand that his victory is a clear mandate from the Catalan society in favor of independence, although that term comes from a minority of citizens. The coalition that during the election campaign insisted consider these elections as a plebiscite waiver interpret the results according to the rules of the plebiscite and would prefer to do under the rules of the regional elections.

Detail is important. In a plebiscite, all votes are equal and the majority is a majority of vote. In regional elections in Spain, the seats are not worth the same in all provinces. For example, to obtain a seat in Barcelona is five times cheaper than win in Gerona, another Catalan province with the lowest representation in Parliament. As votes are is far from the majority they prefers Junts pel Si rely on its parliamentary majority to move forward with its independence project.

Political analysts take for granted that the new Catalan Government will continue taking steps towards unilateral declaration of independence. And agree that they will not believe anything until after the legislative elections in December. The separatists want to know who will win these elections and what will mostly be because a strong Spanish Government will continue to put legal obstacles to Catalan independence, while a weak Government would be more inclined to negotiate. Thinking about it, the Catalan sovereignism within 18 months gave to reach their target.

The danger is that, to govern with a majority, Junts pel Si need the support of the CUP-left alternative, an extremist party that in the election night, shortly after learning the results, called the insurrection against the Spanish State. To what extent will ERC and Convergence of Catalonia willing to commit to these arguments is the question analysts, advancing an intense period of negotiations to form the new Catalan Government.